
Maybe I should just trust the polls. In my gut it doesn't make sense what I'm hearing, but if the polls are the true barometer of what's going on out there, then maybe I'm missing something. Or maybe I'm missing a lot.
Because here's what I don't quite get; more than a few pundits, news commentators, and news stories have all been pedaling the story that the general election race between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney is going to be a real nail-biter that will take us down to the wire. In earlier months, when the Republicans were doing their best to self-destruct, Obama was given a fairly comfortable lead over Romney and everyone else, but now that Romney is the clear leader the latest storyline is that the Republican troops have resigned themselves to the fact that Romney is The Guy and they are rallying behind him. And now that they are all united behind their guy, whatever reservations they may have - and there are plenty - the numbers indicate that this rallying of the conservative base around the Mittster is creating enough of a bump that Obama may have one hell of a fight on his hands come the general election campaign.
And I agree that in politics few things are certain except that they're not. The sure front-runner can be dog catcher within a matter of weeks - or days. But I must admit I'm having a hard time understanding how this race is supposed to be so damned close. Sure, I'm an avowed Obama supporter and want the man to win a second term. But you don't have to be an Obama fan to see how much Mitt Romney has distanced himself from practically every voting constituency except for rich white folks like himself and angry not-quite-so-rich folks who just cannot stand Obama and want him out of there even if they're not that enthused about Romney. That does not equal the majority of voting age Americans.
Consider:
- Women voters now prefer Obama to Romney by a double-digit margin of at least 14 points according to one poll. More than a few say that it is virtually impossible to win an election with that many women committed to the other candidate.
- Hispanic voters favor Obama by a nearly 6 to 1 margin according to a poll conducted by FOX News Latino. Hispanics are becoming a critical constituency in states like Colorado and Arizona, let alone Texas.
- African American voters are once again expected to come out in large numbers (close to 90 percent) in favor of Obama.
- Although the rock star image has been tarnished somewhat due to the realities of politics and governing, which can be hard for the more idealistic young to stomach, it does appear that they will once again be more solidly in Obama's corner this time just like last election, although not as fervently as before. But even if they come out in lower numbers, the likelihood of them gambling on Mitt Romney this time around seems, well, remote to say the least.
- Not only are the Teamsters throwing their support behind Obama, which wasn't necessarily a shock, but they are committing thousands of door-to-door volunteers who now have the ability to knock not just on the doors of other union members but the general population. This could go a long way toward attracting the white working class that so many say are weary of Obama, especially in states like my home state Of Michigan and also Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.
Once again, I'm not going to go so far out on a limb as to suggest that Obama is going to win this running away. He may not even win by the same comfortable margin as he did in 2008, due largely to the soon-to-be-seen impact of the massive voter suppression efforts that have been underway ever since Obama became President, and the disproportionate amount of funds being shoveled into the SuperPACs which Democrats simply cannot compete against. These are formidable barriers to be sure.
But even against those negatives, and factoring in disenchantment amongst the progressive block represented by those such as Prof. Cornel West, Tavis Smiley, Ralph Nader, and others, the embarrassingly tepid support of Romney amongst his base - and his pathetic campaign - make it hard to imagine how he's going to present such a massive threat to a campaigner such as Obama with a more than impressive record of achievement that is only now receiving the exposure that it should have gotten long ago. It's hard to imagine an army of enthusiastic Romney supporters swarming the nation, especially when it is Romney himself whose perpetual gaffes are providing the Obama campaign with the best negative political ads they could ever ask for. Even conservative commentator Joe Scarborough on his MSNBC show 'Morning Joe' blurted out publicly during prime time that none of the Republican political leaders and heavy hitters with whom he is in regular contact believed Romney was going to win in 2012.
As for those who want to trot out the losses of incumbent President Jimmy Carter to Ronald Reagan in 1980, and the loss of Democratic challenger Michael Dukakis to George H.W. Bush in 1988 to show how a Democrat can lose this, I say you can't seriously be comparing Barack Obama to either one of those gentlemen. And especially in the case of Jimmy Carter, where not only can you not compare Carter to Obama, you damned sure can't compare Mitt Romney to Ronald Reagan, whose actor's charisma and base of enthusiastic support were off the charts.
Sometimes I think you have to question the polls...










